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UniCredit weighs two paths for Commerzbank bid in 2026

A high-stakes decision looms as UniCredit's future with Commerzbank balances between minority influence and full control. Will returns justify a takeover?

The image shows an old stock certificate issued by the Société Generale de Credit Mobilier. It is a...
The image shows an old stock certificate issued by the Société Generale de Credit Mobilier. It is a paper document with text written on it, likely containing information about the bank's services.

UniCredit S.p.A. (UNCRY) Discusses Strategic Scenarios and Value Creation Opportunities Regarding Commerzbank

UniCredit weighs two paths for Commerzbank bid in 2026

April 20, 2026 3:00 AM EDT

Company Participants

  • Andrea Orcel - Group CEO, Head of Italy Region & Director
  • Stefano Porro - Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

  • Antonio Reale - BofA Securities, Research Division
  • Sofie Caroline Peterzens - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
  • Andrea Filtri - Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division
  • Delphine Lee - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
  • Ignacio Ulargui - BNP Paribas, Research Division
  • Noemi Peruch - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
  • Britta Schmidt - Bernstein Autonomous LLP
  • Giovanni Razzoli - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
  • Andrew Coombs - Citigroup Inc., Research Division
  • Andrea Lisi - Equita SIM S.p.A., Research Division

Presentation

Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call. Please note that we will take questions exclusively from research analysts. I will now hand the call over to Mr. Andrea Orcel, Chief Executive Officer of UniCredit.

Andrea Orcel

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Before I begin today's presentation, I would like to make clear UniCredit's position vis-a-vis our strategy Unlimited and how we're looking at Commerzbank. Our top priority and unmatched engine for value creation for the next 5 years is UniCredit Unlimited, and we will remain fully focused on its execution.

There are 2 scenarios regarding our offer for Commerzbank. Scenario 1, remaining below control, which we can manage if we achieve a percentage that does not ensure returns above our cost of equity. In such scenario, UniCredit would probably remain below control for at least 12 months in order to fulfill its capital return commitment. Scenario 2, achieving control, with a percentage that ensures returns above our cost of equity.

In scenario 1, we revert to status quo, a net return of over

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