Russia's unsold housing glut to hit 40% by 2026 as crisis deepens
Unsold Housing Stock in New Developments to Hit 35–40% by Late 2026—Highest This Decade
The share of unsold apartments in newly completed residential buildings will reach 35–40% by the end of 2026, the highest level in the current decade. Inventories will continue to accumulate in regions where developers refuse to scale back new project launches. Reversing this trend of market oversupply will be difficult, as housing prices remain stubbornly high despite the massive backlog of unsold units.
By late 2026, the average share of unsold housing in newly commissioned buildings across Russia will rise from the current 28% to 35–40%, according to estimates provided to Expert by Kirill Kholopik, Deputy Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry's Committee on Construction Entrepreneurship and head of the Unified Developers' Resource (ERZ.RF). He estimates that roughly 3.5 trillion rubles are currently tied up in unsold inventory.
The share of unsold new-build apartments has been climbing steadily in recent years. Analysts at Sberbank calculate that the proportion of units left unsold by the time a building is commissioned has grown from 16% in 2021 to 28% in 2025.
Still, experts interviewed by Expert stop short of calling the situation critical, arguing that Russia's overall balance of housing supply and demand remains stable. The sell-through rate—the share of apartments sold out of total housing under construction—has held steady since the start of the year at an acceptable level of around 30%, the Ministry of Construction reported. As of April 1, buyers had purchased 36.7 million sq m of the 118.8 million sq m currently under construction (31%). "It should be noted that sales have not yet opened for 24% of housing under construction (29.1 million sq m)," the ministry clarified. "Projects slated for completion in 2026 have a sell-through rate of 52%, a level that suggests no systemic risk of construction delays."
Data from DOM.RF's analytical center shows that in March, new-build sales nationwide fell by 14% year-on-year, with 1.5 million sq m of housing sold for 321 billion rubles—a 9% decline in revenue. However, first-quarter results remained positive overall: industry revenue grew by 16% year-on-year (1.17 trillion rubles), while sales volume increased by 12% (5.6 million sq m).
Yet regional disparities persist. DOM.RF told Expert that nearly a quarter of projects (30.2 million sq m out of 118.9 million sq m) still face risks of insufficient sell-through: "A housing surplus is observed in one-third of regions, including those leading in construction volume."
A significant share of unsold apartments remains in Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk regions, as well as Voronezh Oblast, analysts from the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) told Expert. This is due to high baseline housing provision (already exceeding target levels in Voronezh Oblast), population stagnation or decline, waning interest from out-of-town investors, and a large volume of new project launches. In contrast, Moscow and St. Petersburg are facing a supply shortage.
The buildup of unsold housing stock in 2026 may continue unevenly—primarily in regions with insufficient demand, predicts Anton Trenin, an expert in ACRA's corporate ratings group: "The key drivers are cooling demand in the first half of the year, following the high base of late-2025 market frenzy, and tighter family mortgage terms starting February 2026. This will push up unsold inventory in regions where developers have yet to adjust their project pipelines."
The growing volume of unsold housing will impact property prices, ACRA believes. In 2025, this already led to a noticeable slowdown in price growth on the primary market in low-demand regions: in Krasnodar Krai, price growth lagged the national average by 6 percentage points, in Krasnoyarsk Krai by 6.9 points, and in Voronezh Oblast by up to 6.2 points. The nationwide average price increase was 10.2% (against 5.6% inflation).
"In 2026, this trend will persist: problem regions may see further stagnation in price growth—or even a drop to zero. Meanwhile, in supply-constrained areas, prices will continue to rise at an accelerated pace (+22.5% in Moscow and +11.4% in St. Petersburg in 2025)," Trenin emphasized. According to him, developers in regions with high unsold inventory have already begun scaling back new launches (with a nationwide decline of 11.6% in 2025), and this trend is likely to continue this year.
The DOM.RF Analytical Center expects 2026 new-home sales to match last year's levels in both square meters and total value (in 2025, Russian developers sold over 25 million sq m of housing worth 5.2 trillion rubles). By year-end, new-build prices will rise only slightly above inflation.
According to Kirill Kholopik, developers will seek to launch new projects under any circumstances, and it is the banks that should slow this process down. As overproduction grows, developers will find it increasingly difficult to secure credit lines. "However, banking methodologies are also flawed. They assess whether each individual project meets their requirements but fail to consider how all projects will perform collectively in a market with limited capacity. Not all banks yet realize that overproduction is the primary threat to meeting targets for individual projects," Kholopik emphasized.
FSK's construction group does not see an overproduction problem in the housing market, given the sharp decline in developer activity: while sales volumes have not fallen as steeply as the number of building permits issued, noted Ksenia Tsaplina, Director of Analytics and Product at FSK. "Further trends will depend on how quickly the key rate drops to single-digit levels. The Bank of Russia expects this to happen by 2027. Once mortgage rates fall to 14% or below, the commercial mortgage market will rebound, releasing significant pent-up demand. That is why talk of price declines and oversupply is premature."
