Vietnam's banks face a high-stakes divide in 2026 as rates and risks rise
Vietnam's banking sector faces a year of sharp contrasts in 2026. Rising interest rates and tighter funding conditions are set to test lenders, while state-backed banks and well-prepared institutions look poised to gain ground. Experts warn that asset quality and access to stable funding will determine which banks thrive—and which struggle—as the economy targets ambitious growth.
Since early 2026, most banks have lifted lending rates for new loans by roughly 3 percentage points. This surge follows a broader trend of climbing deposit rates, which are now projected to sit 2-3 points higher than in 2025. The result? Higher funding costs for banks and potential strain on borrowers' ability to repay, raising concerns over a rise in bad debts.
The Government has set an aggressive goal of double-digit economic growth for the year. To support this, public investment disbursement of around VNĐ1 quadrillion (US$38 billion) is planned, aiming to boost liquidity and stimulate activity. Meanwhile, the State Bank of Vietnam has opted for a more cautious credit growth target, steering funds toward priority sectors. Not all banks will feel the pressure equally. State-owned lenders, including the 'Big 4,' enter the year with advantages: vast branch networks, lower funding costs, and a central role in financing major public projects. In contrast, private banks that have pushed ahead with restructuring—such as MB, VPBank, and HDBank—are expected to outperform, thanks in part to incentives like higher credit growth quotas. Analysts anticipate a growing divide in market share and profitability across the sector. Nguyễn Văn Trí, head of analysis at National Securities Company, highlights the Government's macroeconomic policies as a key factor shaping the industry's trajectory. For now, though, detailed data on how Vietnam's dual goals of growth and controlled lending have affected small and medium-sized enterprises remains limited, as official quarterly reports are still pending.
Banks in 2026 must navigate a landscape of higher costs and selective growth opportunities. Those with stronger asset quality and secure funding sources—particularly state-backed institutions and restructured private lenders—are likely to pull ahead. The year's outcomes will hinge on how well banks manage rising rates, funding stability, and the Government's targeted economic stimulus measures.
