MP Materials rides rare earth boom as stock soars 250% in a year
MP Materials, the sole Western Hemisphere producer of rare earths, has seen its stock surge. The company's Mountain Pass mine supplies critical minerals for high-performance magnets, positioning it as a key player amid shifting global supply chains. Recent financial results and defence contracts signal a potential turnaround in profitability by late 2025.
The company was founded in 2017 and operates from its Las Vegas headquarters. Its core asset, the Mountain Pass mine, remains the sole large-scale rare earth mining and processing site outside Asia. MP Materials specialises in neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, a vital material for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defence technologies.
In Q3 2025, production reached 13,254 metric tons of rare earth oxides (REO), with NdPr oxide output hitting a record 721 metric tons. Despite this, revenue fell 15% year-over-year to $53.6 million after the company stopped selling concentrate to China. The decline reflects a strategic shift toward domestic and allied markets. The US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) signed a price protection agreement with MP Materials in October 2021. This deal, combined with growing demand for non-Chinese supply chains, is expected to lift margins and revenue stability. Analysts have responded by assigning a 'Strong Buy' rating, with an average price target of $80.07—implying a 50% upside. Beyond mining, MP Materials is expanding downstream operations. Its Fort Worth, Texas facility will soon produce metals, alloys, and magnets, further reducing reliance on foreign processing. Management projects a return to profitability in Q4 2025, driven by the DOD agreement and rising demand for rare earth materials.
MP Materials’ stock has climbed 250% over the past year, though it currently trades near the midpoint of its 52-week range. The company’s focus on domestic production and defence contracts aims to secure long-term growth. With expanded processing capacity and a shift away from Chinese sales, its financial outlook hinges on sustained demand for critical minerals.
