Gold overtakes Bitcoin as traders' top asset pick for 2026
Traders on Polymarket now favour gold as the top-performing asset for 2026, giving it a 62% chance of outshining Bitcoin and the S&P 500. The prediction comes as gold's long-term returns surpass those of Bitcoin and stocks, despite the cryptocurrency's explosive gains over six years. Recent market shifts, including the Iran conflict, have also reshaped investor sentiment.
Over the past five years, gold has delivered an 189% return, far exceeding Bitcoin's 27% and the S&P 500's 72%. Yet, when stretched to six years, Bitcoin's performance jumps to 1,273%, leaving gold at 231% and the S&P 500 at 180%. These figures highlight the volatility and potential of cryptocurrency compared to traditional assets.
Since the Iran war began on 28 February 2026, Bitcoin's spot price climbed from $63,922 to roughly 8% higher. Meanwhile, gold and the S&P 500 each dropped by over 3%. Polymarket's latest odds reflect this shift, with gold leading at 62%, Bitcoin at 27%, and the S&P 500 trailing at 12%. Market sentiment has also swung dramatically. The Fear and Greed Index plunged to a record low of 5 in February but has since rebounded to 43. Historical trends suggest that investing during extreme fear—using strategies like dollar-cost averaging—can yield returns between 500% and 2,056% over time.
Gold's strong long-term performance and recent resilience have positioned it as the favoured asset for 2026. Bitcoin's short-term gains contrast with its longer-term volatility, while the S&P 500 lags behind both. The latest market movements and sentiment shifts indicate a cautious but evolving outlook among investors.
