ConocoPhillips stock rises on political news despite earnings decline forecasts
ConocoPhillips (COP) has experienced varied movements in its stock market performance and analyst ratings recently. While shares dipped over the past year, a recent upgrade and political developments have sparked renewed interest. Investors are now closely watching earnings forecasts as expectations point to a decline.
On January 5, 2026, COP’s stock climbed 2.6% after then-President Trump announced plans to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry. The news gave a short-term boost to the company’s share price.
Analysts remain moderately optimistic about the stock, with a consensus rating of 'Moderate Buy'. Out of 28 analysts covering COP, 17 recommend a 'Strong Buy', four suggest a 'Moderate Buy', and seven advise holding the stock. The average price target stands at $111.56, implying a 14.4% upside from current levels. Wells Fargo Securities raised its rating on January 12, shifting COP from neutral to 'Buy' with a $132 price target—the highest among recent projections. No single analyst was identified as setting the $111.56 average target. Earnings expectations, however, paint a less positive picture. For the upcoming quarter, analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22, a 38.4% drop from the same period last year. Full-year 2025 EPS is projected at $6.39, an 18% decline from 2024. Looking further ahead, fiscal 2026 EPS is expected to fall another 16.4% to $5.34. Despite weaker forecasts, COP has consistently beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters. Over the last 52 weeks, though, its shares have fallen 4%, underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF.
ConocoPhillips faces a mix of challenges and opportunities as political developments and analyst upgrades contrast with declining earnings forecasts. The company’s ability to outperform estimates in recent quarters may influence investor confidence moving forward. The stock’s next moves will likely depend on both market conditions and upcoming financial results.
